Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 0.034221 0.038992 0.044217 0.050369 0.057421 0.065258 0.074640
2025-01-19 0.025443 0.031570 0.038895 0.048318 0.060152 0.074561 0.093501
2025-01-26 0.022210 0.029193 0.038053 0.050163 0.066355 0.087355 0.116818
2025-02-02 0.019946 0.027478 0.037513 0.051929 0.072229 0.099972 0.141070
2025-02-09 0.018208 0.026123 0.037121 0.053618 0.077921 0.112694 0.166728
2025-02-16 0.016234 0.024135 0.035524 0.053273 0.080485 0.121035 0.186791
2025-02-23 0.014781 0.022698 0.034503 0.053555 0.083857 0.130737 0.209819
2025-03-02 0.013323 0.021071 0.032986 0.052838 0.085495 0.137788 0.229274
2025-03-09 0.012463 0.020273 0.032639 0.053881 0.089968 0.149700 0.257932
2025-03-16 0.011394 0.019017 0.031416 0.053321 0.091659 0.157092 0.279578
2025-03-23 0.010879 0.018621 0.031549 0.055028 0.097344 0.171785 0.315704
2025-03-30 0.009843 0.017231 0.029864 0.053383 0.096903 0.175580 0.332192
2025-04-06 0.009027 0.016169 0.028676 0.052556 0.097952 0.182341 0.355429
2025-04-13 0.008112 0.014848 0.026912 0.050504 0.096509 0.184329 0.369661
2025-04-20 0.007852 0.014698 0.027255 0.052430 0.102855 0.201831 0.417081
2025-04-27 0.007599 0.014536 0.027550 0.054280 0.109222 0.220015 0.468102
2025-05-04 0.007352 0.014359 0.027798 0.056049 0.115589 0.238841 0.522776
2025-05-11 0.006881 0.013699 0.027038 0.055687 0.117476 0.248507 0.558396
2025-05-18 0.006523 0.013230 0.026617 0.055983 0.120775 0.261501 0.603110
2025-05-25 0.006089 0.012569 0.025747 0.055232 0.121703 0.269376 0.636809
2025-06-01 0.005866 0.012330 0.025728 0.056324 0.126843 0.287205 0.696534
2025-06-08 0.005508 0.011773 0.024986 0.055738 0.128083 0.296195 0.735619
2025-06-15 0.005379 0.011700 0.025282 0.057526 0.135042 0.319338 0.813344